It is estimated that the annual growth rate of NAND Flash will be less than 30% from 2022 to 2025
28 August 2023
With the exit of the epidemic dividend and the poor overall economy, the demand for consumer electronics has frozen sharply. TrendForce released the latest NAND Flash survey report today (27), pointing out that the Client Solid State Disk (SSD) will be the product with the most obvious slowdown in demand, which will limit the growth of the overall NAND Flash demand. It is estimated that the annual growth rate from 2022 to 2025 will be less than 30%.
TrendForce said that the penetration rate of client SSD in notebook computers will reach 92%, and it will reach 96% in 2023. It is estimated that the growth rate of the demand level of the overall client SSD in this year and next is 4.3% and 11.6% respectively, and the growth rate of the average carrying capacity is also reduced from 18.2% in 2022 to 9.6% in 2023. In the future, the growth momentum of the global NAND Flash demand level will be driven by the enterprise SSD.
In terms of capacity, in 2022, the carrying capacity of client SSDs on PCs will exceed 500GB, and 512GB client SSDs will be similar to 256GB in the first half of the year after the recent rapid price drop. For the low capacity part, considering that the entry-level market of 128GB SSD for PCs will gradually decline, the OEM import price of PCs dominated by Microsoft, and UFS with speed comparable to SATA interface as a configuration option, may also replace the use of low capacity client SSD for a long time.
To be specific, compared with smart phone camera configuration, PCs mostly use video communication instead of pursuing high-quality video recording, so the growth of storage demand is slow.
TrendForce believes that, due to the obvious decline of SSD in the near future, the price difference between SSD and UFS has narrowed, and the platform host has not been able to natively support the UFS 3.1 speed, so the current PC OEM manufacturers believe that UFS does not have much incentive to import when there is no obvious price advantage, and the opportunity will not appear until the price advantage appears and the platform host starts to natively support UFS 3.1.
TrendForce said that the penetration rate of client SSD in notebook computers will reach 92%, and it will reach 96% in 2023. It is estimated that the growth rate of the demand level of the overall client SSD in this year and next is 4.3% and 11.6% respectively, and the growth rate of the average carrying capacity is also reduced from 18.2% in 2022 to 9.6% in 2023. In the future, the growth momentum of the global NAND Flash demand level will be driven by the enterprise SSD.
In terms of capacity, in 2022, the carrying capacity of client SSDs on PCs will exceed 500GB, and 512GB client SSDs will be similar to 256GB in the first half of the year after the recent rapid price drop. For the low capacity part, considering that the entry-level market of 128GB SSD for PCs will gradually decline, the OEM import price of PCs dominated by Microsoft, and UFS with speed comparable to SATA interface as a configuration option, may also replace the use of low capacity client SSD for a long time.
To be specific, compared with smart phone camera configuration, PCs mostly use video communication instead of pursuing high-quality video recording, so the growth of storage demand is slow.
TrendForce believes that, due to the obvious decline of SSD in the near future, the price difference between SSD and UFS has narrowed, and the platform host has not been able to natively support the UFS 3.1 speed, so the current PC OEM manufacturers believe that UFS does not have much incentive to import when there is no obvious price advantage, and the opportunity will not appear until the price advantage appears and the platform host starts to natively support UFS 3.1.
